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The real time backtesting algorithm, NLP and the future of fundamental research - Miami Roundtable

 

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The credit crisis changed many things in the behavior of finance. For example, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is now in question, together with many other things and theories that we learned when we went to school. 2018 was then the inflection point where Fed Put function of QE came to an end, and since then we have been moving to a different playbook. These changes have become very visible in the returns that we are seeing.

Meanwhile, investment professionals and investors are wondering if it is still possible to run a successful hedge fund today based on pure fundamental techniques? We do know that investment companies are changing their processes and their set up. Many don't even define themselves as investment but technology companies dedicated to investing as their business. We also see a different talent and human resource pool in those firms versus the traditional investment houses. BlackRock now has a higher percentage of technologists than JPMorgan, and this says a lot about the future of the money-management. It's Ph.Ds. and coders over CFAs.

Algorithms are in the end the result of the evolution of technology applied to the financial world. That evolution triggered the appearance of tools and solutions that are able to analyze information much faster, with more reliability - therefore enabling much faster trading decisions. The key result is that much better informed decisions can be taken often within the scope of just a microsecond - hence out of the perception realm of a human being. Algorithms today simultaneously trade multiple asset classes and are able to rebalance, back test and reinvest the investor's entire portfolio in real time. Surprisingly enough, Asia - not the US - seems to be a main driving area for the automation of investment solutions (page 17-19).

The 2019 Opalesque Miami Roundtable, sponsored by Miami Downtown Development Authority, had the following participants:

  1. Alberto Pagan-Matos, CFA, Managing Director, Glovista Investments?€?
  2. Antonio Goncalves, Director, Miami Exchange (MIAX)
  3. Cliff Oberlin, Founder & CEO, Oberlin Wealth Partners?€?
  4. David Coggins, CEO & Managing Member, Coral Gables Asset Management?€?
  5. George Askew, Founder & CEO Rule Capital Management
  6. Jeffrey Racenstein, HSD Holdings
The group also discussed:
  • Can you run a fund that exploits inefficiencies caused by stock market regulation? (page 8, 14, 22)
  • Why many of the (very) wealthy families are happy to be on the bottom part of the investing pyramid (page 9). How the uber-wealthy are dealing with the current markets (page 13). Do bonds belong in portfolios today? Two ways to reduce volatility in a portfolio (page 14)
  • Are financial markets trusting or starting to not trust President Trump? What are the parallels between the 1960s and today? (page 9-10)
  • How to return double digit numbers to investors using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning (page 10-11). Should hedge fund managers still read 10-Ks? (page 19)
  • What's the true impact of the trade war for the US? (page 9-12). The promise of augmented and virtual reality (page 22)
  • The capacity trap: The trajectory from emerging hedge fund manager to billionaire converting to family office (page 11, 15, 19)
  • Why is the Miami Options Exchange, one of the most advanced and innovative technology companies in the financial industry and the 18th largest exchange in the world by trading volumes, located in Miami? Why locals are "hugely bullish" on Miami as a financial hub (page 20-22)
  • Why a 25% allocation to alternatives will be the new normal. Red flags in PE (page 23-24)

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