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Novice AI users to cause risk and sell-offs: How to survive the next financial crisis

 

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With over 20 million inhabitants, Florida is the 3rd largest state in the US and its 2018 projected GDP of over $1 trillion ranks it as the 4th largest. The state has also the strongest asset protection laws in the US. On average, 1,000 people move to Florida daily. Undoubtedly the recent tax reform will be a huge catalyst as it clearly disfavors high tax northeast states, which are already the main source of the region's immigration. The slow trickle of migration from the Northeast is a massive tailwind for South Florida.

17 Fortune 500 companies are based in Florida and over 40% of all US trade with Latin and South America pass through the state. Miami is a great place for wealth managers and family offices, and over the last years more asset managers set up shop in Miami. In fact, the Miami Downtown Development Authority has seen over 50 finance firms moving to Miami.

9,000 high and ultra high net-worth individuals in South Florida

When we look at the asset raising environment and compare Miami and Manhattan, these are certainly two distinct markets. Obviously Miami is the gateway to Latin America where also a lot more potential can be developed. But just South Florida has about 9,000 high net-worth and ultra high net-worth individuals, which for an asset management firm or for a fund that's just starting offers some real and significant opportunities. Subsequently when the asset base has grown to a certain level, the manager can then start to commute to Manhattan and looking for institutional opportunities. Both cities have advantages fund managers can capitalize on.

Fund managers who recently moved into AI to cause trouble

While in 2015, 47% of all hedge fund launches included a component of quantitative finance or machine learning and artificial intelligence, for 2018 Deloitte predicts this number to reach 70%. Of course, machine learning is only as good as the data that you have, but there may also be a dark side to AI. David Coggins is convinced fund managers and investment firms that have recently moved into this space will find the transition to be a difficult one. New challenges will arise such as having to refine quant models to reflect higher interest rates, inflation projects, etc. These types of situations are going to happen this year and will put global markets at risk, creating many market sell-offs in 2018, according to Coggins. Note that this Roundtable meeting took place in December 2017 in Miami, and that the participants pretty much nailed the VIX flash crash that happened in early February 2018.

The following experts participated at the Opalesque 2018 Miami Roundtable, sponsored by the Miami Downtown Development Authority:

  1. Dr. Bret Diamond, Chairman, CIO and Founder of The Fortune Group & AlphaStars Portfolio Science
  2. David Coggins, Managing Member, Coral Gables Asset Management
  3. Mark Fitzpatrick, Co-Founder, Glide Capital
  4. Nitin Motwani, Managing Principal, Miami Worldcenter; Chair, Economic Development, Miami Downtown Development Authority
  5. Ricardo Navarro, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Noctua Partners
  6. Shalin Madan, Founder, Bodhi Tree Asset Management
The group also spoke about:
  • Miami infrastructure: A $3 billion dollar train system where Henry Flagler's original tracks were laid 100 years ago (page 12). Miami goes international: Paramount Miami Worldcenter with buyers from 50 countries (with China #2) (page 12)
  • The LatAm nexus: Why there is still a significant upside for an influx of assets and asset managers in south Florida (page 13). Opportunites in Latin America and the broader EM markets (page 19-20)
  • Ex-ante risk management (page 16)
  • Investment advisor / wealth management industry pressured to change (page 18-21,23). What should a fund manager's value proposition be in a world where well over 95% of institutions can't beat a simple equity/bond construct of passives
  • Biases that go deeper than education: Why only a very small percentage of investors are truly equipped to select the very best asset managers for their wealth (page 22-23). How the super rich want to invest today (page 24)
  • Private debt solutions for RIAs (page 19, 26)
  • How to make money with distressed ICO tokens (page 27)
  • Where the machines are going to get tripped up. The Augmented AI model (page 17)
  • How to survive the next financial crisis (page 28-30)

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