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Equity Risk, Pseudo-Liquidity, ETF Fragility and The Managed Futures Conundrum: Chicago Roundtable

 

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Equities are the biggest risk in most peoples' global portfolios with $100 trillion market cap. Let's add to that the fact that HFT, automated algorithmic trading, has moved up to probably 90%, 95% of all trading and there are failsafe switches programmed in these algos to pull their bids and offers in unfavorable environments.

This means that rather than piling into a down trending market, these players would rather just exit the market. People think there is liquidity, but then there isn't because the high frequency and algo traders will simply exit the market. The real risk isn't that they will start going massively short, but that there just won't be as much liquidity as people thought there was.

These automated trading algorithms have not actually been tested under real pressure, under a real adverse event, and markets could essentially implode. Find out why Emil van Essen is so vocal about this type of systemic risk. (page 14, 19).

From passive to active defense

Many investors were wondering why Managed Futures essentially mirrored stock market losses in February and October 2018, when they are non-correlated investments? In this Roundtable we are shedding light on this conundrum and a number of other misconceptions on managed futures.

Crisis alpha in the short run is still possible within the CTA industry, but for that, investors and consultants may have to look beyond the large firms that manage the lion share of the assets and research the wide range of talent and strategies available at the smaller outlets. The Roundtable participants also discussed increased interest from investors moving from passive to active defense and risk mitigation (page 14, 22, 33).

The Opalesque 2018 Chicago Roundtable, sponsored by the CME, took place in Chicago with:

  1. Ernest Jaffarian, Founder, CEO & Co-CIO, Efficient Capital Management
  2. David Klusendorf, CIO, Typhon Capital Management
  3. Tom O'Donnell, Managing Director, 3D Capital Management
  4. Emil van Essen, CEO and CIO, Emil van Essen, LLC
  5. Jeff Malec, Managing Director, RCM Alternatives
  6. Andrew Strasman, Principal, Totem Asset Group
  7. Clint Cox, Co-CIO, Crypto Futura Fund
The group also discussed:
  • The Forgotten Basics: Markets move in two directions (page 12,13,24,32). Dealing with equity risk as the biggest risk in most investors' portfolios today (page 13,14). The return of the 2007 exposure (page 17). The value of liquidity (page 19). Why hedge fund returns are down (page 31-33). Conflating non-correlation with negative correlation (page 6)
  • The trouble with today's modern electronic sub-second market-makers, payment for order flow, no-load funds, Robinhood: A travesty with the SEC looking the other way (page 15-16). ETFs: An example of "fragility" (page 20)
  • Have managed futures diversified models away from the classical trend following, or did they stay the same? (page 20-22). Discretion in systematic trading (page 23). Opportunities in China for proven standard trading models (page 26)
  • Crypto Update: The backbone for a new generation of applications (page 26-29), Implications of a World Currency (page 30), Did the Bitcoin Cash fork cause the slump? (page 10). Tether breaking the buck and the rise of stablecoins. The 51% dilemma: Grinding Bitcoin to zero while being short the future? (page 11,12,28).

Access the Opalesque 2018 Chicago Roundtable | Download here

The Opalesque Roundtable Series offers unparalleled intelligence on the most important global hedge fund jurisdictions and their players. The Roundtable Series is a free publication from Opalesque and is continually updated. Please scroll down to view the full selection of our Roundtables - covering the globe!

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