Australian hedge fund manager believes 'QE will continue far into the future,' to launch offshore fund

Ben Sillizio

Ben Sillizio, the manager of an Australian market neutral hedge fund Qato Capital, believes the market environment will become more challenging. He has believed so for 18 months, he says. "We joke that the community will stop talking about QE (quantitative easing), once we get to QE100. We are very much of the belief that QE will continue far into the future."

With regards to interest rates, he says, the US Federal Reserve "will probably reverse pretty quickly on that path to put it back on hold or in fact cap rates again. There's really no growth platform anymore that's evident in any global economy."

The Chinese economy will be driven by internal growth, and services rather than industry. The India economy is taking longer than anticipated to pick up despite Modi's actions. Brazil will likely continue to fall deeper into a recession. And Russia has its own set of challenges, "led by sanctions and softening prices." What was thought to be the last bastion for global growth, the Middle East, has been foiled by unstable political climate, which might not harmonise as soon as some believe. As for Europe, he adds, 2015 was disappointing and most European companies have missed analysts' forecasts.

"The accumulation of all these factors lead me to be incredibly pessimistic of any prospects of global growth," he notes.

This echoes the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which hinted in March that it would lower its 3.4% growth forecast for the global economy, with one of the main reasons being the failure of cheap oil to deliver a widely anticipated boost to major economies, reported the FT. And indicators released by the the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop......................

To view our full article please login

This article was published in Opalesque's New Managers a top-down monthly analysis, news and research publication on the global emerging manager space.