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Matthias Knab, Opalesque:

When I was asked who could give investors at Apex Invest Europe 2026 a clear-eyed view of Europe's macro risks, one name came to mind right away: Alexander Ineichen. I have followed his work for many years. He is the founder of Ineichen Research and Management and one of the most independent thinkers on risk management and what he calls "nowcasting." He never hides behind consensus, so I was very pleased when he accepted my invitation to give the keynote today at the Dolder Grand Hotel in Zurich.

He did not disappoint. Ineichen opened with a topic every visitor to Zurich notices: prices. Tourists tend to call Swiss prices ridiculous. Ineichen argued that high prices are actually a good thing, as long as you measure them against what people earn.

His yardstick was The Economist's Big Mac, chosen because it is a homogeneous product that should be the same anywhere in the world. Switzerland reliably wins the contest for the most expensive Big Mac. But adjusted for income, taxes and working hours, the average Swiss needs only about ten minutes of work to pay for one. "You pay the Big Mac, or anything else, an iPhone or a handbag, with your net income," Ineichen said. The average French worker, with a cheaper burger, needs twice as long. In China, where the Big Mac is cheaper still, it takes about an hour.

The Armey curve and the 50% threshold

From burgers, Ineichen moved to the size of the state. Most investors know the......................

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