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Alternative Market Briefing

IMF on economic impacts of Middle East war

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

By Opalesque:

The International Monetary Fund's message is remarkably consistent across all three regions (Western Hemisphere, Europe and Asia) in its recent blogs on the impact of the mayhem in the Middle East: protect the vulnerable with targeted measures, resist the temptation of broad subsidies, keep inflation expectations anchored, and use the crisis as a spur for structural reform rather than an excuse to delay it.

Western Hemisphere: Uneven but universal challenges

The Western Hemisphere entered 2026 in reasonable shape - growth near potential, inflation close to target, and resilience demonstrated in the face of US tariff shocks. The Middle East war has now introduced a new layer of uncertainty, affecting global financial conditions, capital flows, investor sentiment, and commodity prices. The consequences, however, are far from uniform.

Oil-producing nations - among them the US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana - are benefiting from elevated energy prices, which are strengthening their balance of payments and government revenues. For these countries, the net economic effect is broadly positive, though even within them the most vulnerable households face real hardship from rising food and fuel costs.

For the rest of the region, the picture i......................

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