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Alternative Market Briefing

2026 Hedge Fund Outlook: Allocators increase exposure as funds hit their stride

Wednesday, February 04, 2026

Matthias Knab, Opalesque for New Managers:

Hedge funds are experiencing a resurgence in allocator confidence, with institutional investors planning to increase exposure and net inflows accelerating into 2026. According to BNP Paribas' annual survey of 246 allocators representing $1.1 trillion in hedge fund assets - over one fifth of industry AUM - the outlook for hedge funds remains decidedly positive as the asset class continues delivering diversified returns amid rising market dispersion.

Strong Performance Exceeds Allocator Targets

Hedge funds delivered compelling returns in 2025, achieving 10.53% net performance and generating 641 basis points of excess return over cash. This substantially exceeded the typical allocator target of cash plus 400-600 basis points. Over the trailing five-year period, hedge funds returned 7.96% annualized, representing 466 basis points annually over cash.

Alpha generation has continued year over year, with hedge funds producing 2.13% of outperformance versus the MSCI World in 2025 and 3.02% on a five-year annualized basis. This consistent value-add demonstrates the asset class's ability to generate returns beyond broad market exposure.

Diversification Benefits Persist Despite Rising Correlation

While correlation to equity markets has gradually increased - rising to 0.92 over the past 12 months versus 0.80 ove......................

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