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Alternative Market Briefing

IMF: Shifting ground beneath the calm

Monday, November 03, 2025

By Opalesque:

The International Monetary Fund's most recent Financial Stability Report, which is published twice a year, reveals a paradoxical situation in global financial markets: surface-level calm masking underlying vulnerabilities that could destabilize the system if left unaddressed.

"Financial stability risks remain elevated amid stretched asset valuations, sovereign bond market pressures, and rising influence of nonbank financial institutions," the report starts. "Structural changes in foreign exchange and emerging market bonds bring new risks and resilience to these markets."

The illusion of stability

Despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, global financial markets have maintained an appearance of tranquillity. However, the IMF warns that this calm is deceptive. The Fund's growth-at-risk framework indicates that risks to global financial stability have actually increased. The report emphasizes that policymakers must remain vigilant and prepared to respond quickly as circumstances evolve.

Warning sign #1: Inflated asset prices

The first major vulnerability identified is the sustained appreciation of risk asset prices.

Risk assets are assets that have significant price volatility, such as equities, commodities, high-yield bonds, real estate, and currencies.

Markets seem to be underestimating the potential economic i......................

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