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Alternative Market Briefing

Rate-cutting central banks and U.S. exceptionalism

Thursday, October 09, 2025

By Opalesque:

Many a dataset are created for consumption by the investment community. And there are many ways to interpret each dataset as well as the data as a whole. Leading investors, firms and organisations to take appropriate action.

In a recent update seen by Opalesque, Kevin W. Shea, CEO of Disciplined Alpha LLC, a Boston, MA-based systematic investment manager, presents another dataset that may require a conclusion, and an action. In this case, the analysis focuses on global central banks, themselves great consumers and interpreters of economic data.

When a global central bank is concerned about the future direction of their respective economy, its actions typically include cutting interest rates.

Based on data from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which tracks the actions of approximately 100 global central banks, the EMEA Credit Strategy Team at Bank of America created a chart (see below) that shows the percent of global central banks that cut interest rates on a rolling six-month basis since the 1940s.

While some of the economic data in the U.S. is mixed, Mr. Shea reports, from a global perspective, more than 70% of global central banks have cut interest rates in the last six-month period.

The red ovals, which he added, show periods since the 1980s during which about 70% to 95% of banks cut interest rates.

These time periods include the October 1987 market......................

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