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Alternative Market Briefing

Hedge fund surge accelerates into 4Q with gains led by Macro and trend following

Wednesday, October 08, 2025

Matthias Knab, Opalesque for New Managers:

Hedge fund performance accelerated in September for the fifth consecutive month, led by Macro and quantitative trend following CTA strategies, as the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and M&A activity - including strategic AI-focused partnerships - continued to pick up.

Headline numbers

The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index (FWC) advanced an estimated +2.4 percent in September, while the HFRI Asset Weighted Composite Index rose +2.7 percent. The September gain lifted 3Q25 FWC performance to +5.7 percent, the strongest quarterly return since 1Q2021.

Macro and CTA lead

Driven by falling rates and commodity gains, the HFRI Macro (Total) Index climbed an estimated +3.4 percent in September, powered by the HFRI Macro: Systematic Diversified Index at +4.5 percent. The HFR Cryptocurrency Index gained +6.7 percent, while the HFRI Multi-Manager/Pod Shop Index added +1.1 percent, with positive contributions across major strategy buckets.

Dispersion widens

Performance dispersion expanded in September: the top decile of HFRI FWC constituents rose by an average of +12.2 percent, while the bottom decile fell -3.2 percent, a 15.4 percent spread vs 12.9 percent in August. Over the 12 months ending September 2025, the top decile gained +52.3 percent and the bottom decile declined -14.9 percent, a 67.2 percent spread.......................

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