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By Opalesque:

QCAM Currency Asset Management AG, a Swiss currency asset manager, is weighing whether the US dollar is in a persistent bear trend or if it is merely experiencing increased volatility within a broader range.

This is a timely reflection as Trump's return to the White House has jolted currency markets back to life, reported The Economist. In April, a measure of the volatility of the DXY index, which compares the dollar with a basket of peer currencies, was almost twice as high as a year earlier.

A new trend or more volatility

The US dollar (USD) experienced a significant 5.3% plunge in the DXY index following tariff announcements on April 2nd and the subsequent trade dispute with China, pushing it below the 99.2 downside boundary of its two-year trading range, reports Bernhard Eschweiler, senior economist at QCAM in a monthly newsletter.

The key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a persistent USD bear trend or merely increased volatility within a broader range.

Several factors suggest a potential bear trend. Contrary to economic theory (which predicts currency appreciation when implementing tariffs), the USD declined desp......................

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