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By Opalesque: In his latest memo, "Nobody Knows (Yet Again)," Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree, parallels the current uncertainty following President Trump's tariff announcements and previous market crises, notably the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. In all these cases, market participants faced unprecedented situations with no reliable historical data to guide them.
His 2008 memo "Nobody Knows" was written days after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy when financial markets were in freefall. Despite profound uncertainty, he concluded that investing was logical since predicting the end of the world is impossible, preparing for it is impractical, and most crises don't lead to catastrophe. Similarly, in March 2020, he wrote "Nobody Knows II" during the early COVID pandemic, noting that decisions were being made purely on speculation without applicable facts or analogous experiences.
The current situation echoes these past crises. Trump's aggressive tariff announcements have upended global trade norms established over 80 years. Indeed, no experts or economic models can reliably predict outcomes since there have been no large-scale trade wars in the modern era. While everyone can agree on obvious consequences like higher prices, the less obvious effects are much harder to forecast.
He outlines Trump's possible goals for the tariffs:
• Supporting U.S. manufacturing
• Encouraging exports while discouraging...................... To view our full article Click here
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