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New York Life Investments' recent report, Swan Lake: The risks that would most disrupt consensus in 2025, discusses potential "black swan" events that could significantly disrupt markets in 2025. The analysis focuses not on the most extreme risks but on disruptive events that have a clear path to occurring this year.
Here are the key scenarios they outline:
1. Undersea cable sabotage:
Over 400 subsea cables handle 95% of global internet traffic and $10 trillion in daily financial transactions. Recent incidents, like the suspected Russian sabotage of Baltic Sea cables in November 2024, highlight their vulnerability. With only 60 repair ships globally, disruptions could take months to resolve, affecting aviation, financial markets, and critical services. Companies with robust communication networks and satellite firms could benefit, while aviation and internet-dependent sectors might face risks.
2. China losing normal trade relations status:
The potential revocation of China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status by the U.S. could lead to tariffs as high as 50% on Chinese goods. This would significantly impact U.S.-China trade relations, potentially costing 744,000 U.S. jobs over five years and reducing average household income by $8,700. This might accelerate China's economic rebalancing toward domestic consumption.
3. Danish oil shipping restrictions:
Concerns over Russia's "ghost ships" ...................... To view our full article Click here
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