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Alternative Market Briefing

2024 signals rebounding US private equity M&A deal volume

Monday, May 20, 2024

Laxman Pai, Opalesque Asia:

2024 US corporate M&A deal volume will increase by 20% and US private equity (PE) M&A deal volume will be up 16%, according to a study.

The EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer, which incorporates the latest EY Macroeconomic outlook, indicates that US PE deal volumes are likely to rebound 16% in 2024, following a 15% contraction in 2023.

While this would still leave deal volumes below the 2021 peak, it would represent a faster pace of growth than the average 9% annual pace from 2010 to 2019.

"As we look ahead, the EY CEO Outlook survey points to an increase in CEOs looking to make acquisitions and a big rise in those looking to divest assets. At the same time, most institutional investors (61%) anticipate a stable deal environment, with a third (34%) who expect an acceleration of deals," said the report.

"In our optimistic macroeconomic scenario, deal volumes would rise faster in 2024, up 23% year over year (y/y). This would be two and a half times the pre-pandemic pace of growth so that deal volumes would be only 6% below the 2021 peak," the report noted.

"In our pessimistic macroeconomic scenario, deal volumes would rebound with a delay and much less in 2024, showing modest year-over-year growth of about 8%. In this scenario, the deal volume would trail the 2021 peak by 18%," it added.

In the meantime, Deal Barometer forecasts that corporate US M&A deal volume will rise 20% in 2024, following a 17% contra......................

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