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By Dr Patrick Welton, founder and CIO of Welton Investment Partners, an alternative asset manager founded in 1988 and headquartered in California which invests in multi-strategy global macro, systematic trends, and multi-asset ESG.
Our look ahead surrounds a viewpoint. We focus on strategic portfolio value. Where can Macro contribute the most? And how might this change in the year ahead? The engines are returns, noncorrelation, and downside performance. Each contributes in essential ways.
New landscape for 2024
Macro allocation opportunities consistently derive from two dominant sources - fundamental and strategic. As we enter 2024, I believe we are entering a new landscape offering both.
Though some markets started earlier, 2023 was a consolidating year with ranging reversals. The net market result is that by yearend, all dominant major asset moves released pressure, dropping their net positioning, and all asset classes exhibited wide-ranging consolidation, finding value levels. These are hallmarks of markets passing through their riskiest phases of uncertainty, which is why I believe this phase has largely passed.
My view ahead is that more is known today than unknown. And what comes next is far less likely to surprise markets, all of which have less embedded convexity. The primary phase of this rate cycle is over. Much of the refinancing impact and timing is known (but has not yet occurred). And public data recognition of inflati...................... To view our full article Click here
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