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Alternative Market Briefing

Other Voices: India: "If you build it, they will come"

Tuesday, April 11, 2023

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By Rob Brewis, investment manager at UK-based boutique manager Aubrey Capital Management.

Fans of Kevin Costner* may recall Field of Dreams. The above quote went to the heart of the 1989 film. It sprung to mind during our recent visit to India. Namely, that Indian infrastructure is finally shifting from a 'hindrance' to a 'help'. In the words of The Economist, "India is getting an eye-wateringly big transport upgrade."

Now those of you who know us as investors in Emerging Markets (EM) consumption may be asking how does this help Aubrey EM? Stay with us and the answer will become abundantly clear.

The current breakneck pace of infrastructure spending is most painfully obvious in Mumbai, where city planners are trying to build out 10 metro lines simultaneously, as well as a highly ambitious and partly submerged coastal expressway. It is the same story in Indore, India's 17th most populous, and apparently cleanest, city where another metro line is under construction. This is more of a pre-emptive build, as we have become used to in China ('if you build it…').

However, most English-speaking journals reporting on this give the Modi administration little credit. The first dig is always that the development was set in motion by previous administrations. But we remember the great reforms of Narasimha Rao's government in the early 1990s which were going to rid India of its 'Hindu rate of growth', and the numbers......................

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