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B. G., Opalesque Geneva: In this interview, Dr. Patrick Welton, founder and CIO of Welton Investment Partners, offers his observations on the themes expected to affect global macro investing and the commodity markets.
Welton is an alternative asset manager founded in 1988 and based in California, with an office in New York City and a Research Center in Paris, France. The firm invests in multi-strategy global macro, systematic trends, and multi-asset ESG.
According to Dr. Patrick Welton, we have transitioned into a more normal market environment - compared to the previous QE and low-rates years. The transition means there is now a normal prospect of returns environment for global macro investing*.
Opalesque: Do you think we have transitioned into a more normal market environment?
Dr. Patrick Welton: We have transitioned. The evidence is everywhere, in every asset class.
For the first time in seven decades, the US M2 aggregate money supply has been declining. And the rate of growth is declining too. It is unusual but understandable for a quantitative tightening.
If we look at relative differences in financing costs, known by traders as "carry", in the G10 and G7 economies, carry levels are at their highest opportunity set in 12 years.
Interest rates are no longer at the zero-bound...................... To view our full article Click here
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