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B. G., Opalesque Geneva:

Citi Global Wealth Investments (CGWI) predicts the weakest annual global economic growth in forty years outside of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID shutdowns, in its Wealth Outlook 2023 report titled Roadmap to Recovery: Portfolios to Anticipate Opportunities. Citi does not see high turbulence in the US but will still enter the year positioned defensively. There will be opportunities, however, in short-term US investment grade fixed income, defensive and non-cyclical growth equities, and unstoppable trends.

The year ahead is likely to see:

• A shallow US recession and worse in some other places such as the Eurozone • A recovery in Chinese growth, by contrast, as pandemic restrictions are relaxed • US inflation continuing to ease, ending 2023 at around 3.5% • The US Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by the second half of the year • A 10% drop in global earnings per share

With the current equity bear market probably not over, CGWI enters the year positioned defensively but expects to pivot as the year progresses.

"Over time, the US stock market has never bottomed before an associated recession has even begun, so we regard recent equity upside as a bear market rally," ......................

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