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Laxman Pai, Opalesque Asia: Two-thirds of respondents in a new survey expect aggressive portfolios to outperform defensive ones in 2021, despite the same proportion saying the global economy will fail to fully recover from the coronavirus crisis this year.
The Natixis Investment Management survey, which canvassed the views of 400 fund selectors representing $12.7tn in assets globally and was conducted in November and December 2020, revealed that 66% of fund selectors outperformed their aggressive portfolio in 2021.
Fund selectors indicate that while the opportunities are out there, it will require close analysis to find them: 70% forecast active investment to outperform passive, and 63% project value stocks to outperform growth. And after seeing ESG strategies outperform during the past year, 57% say outperformance will continue in 2021.
The survey said that 70% expect actively managed funds will outperform passive in 2021.
Most (79%) don't expect a real economic recovery until they see a sign that companies are increasing capital expenditures.
Meanwhile, selectors view volatility and negative rates as their biggest portfolio risks at the moment, even though they remain broadly positive about the markets.
At least half expect increased volatility in the stock (50%) and bond (53%) markets this year, with corrections in technology (52%) and cryptocurrency (52%). Nearly two-thirds (65%) point to volatility as the top risk to portfolio performance.
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