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Alternative Market Briefing

US financial professionals expect year-end returns more like 2018 than 2008

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Laxman Pai, Opalesque Asia:

Even with signs of a market recovery, financial professionals revealed that their 2020 return expectations more closely resemble the modest declines seen in 20181 than in 2008, when the S&P plunged 37% and the MSCI posted a loss of 40.33%.

Financial professionals, including investment advisers, wealth managers, brokers, and financial planners, expect US stock returns to climb back from steep losses to finish the year down just 3.6%, according to a survey by Natixis Investment Managers.

According to the survey, the market outlook of respondents is more optimistic in the US than the rest of the world. Pessimism is highest in Asia, where financial professionals forecast double-digit losses for the year.

Advisors are optimistic the market will continue to right itself in the second half of the year, but they expect more volatility ahead, and ultimately forecast modest losses for the year of 3.6%.

Between March 16 and April 24, 2020, Natixis surveyed 2,700 financial professionals in 16 countries, including a pool of 300 wealth managers, investment advisors, and brokers in the US, and found that, globally, respondents forecast a loss of 7% for the S&P 500 and a loss of 7.3% for the MSCI World Index at year-end.

Ongoing volatility remains the top risk to portfolio performance and market outlook. Two-thirds (65%) of professionals in the US cite volatility as a top concern, followed closely by recession fears (64%).

More than four in ......................

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