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Alternative Market Briefing

Lyxor expects active strategies to lead again in Q4

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Laxman Pai, Opalesque Asia:

Active strategies' relative performance in Q3 was slightly weaker than in Q2, though uneven across regions, says Lyxor.

"Going forward, we expect a sense of déjà vu in Q4. A respite in uncertainties could yet again spur, for a time, a greater focus on micro developments in some regions, and with fewer distortions from central banks' injections," a report from Lyxor said.

Continued global deceleration could lead to more country discrimination also in support of active styles. "However, these trends might unevenly affect regional alpha backdrop that we see mixed in the U.S. for large caps, conditioned by Brexit in Europe, vulnerable to a value recovery in Japan, still supportive in EM," it added.

"In the U.S., we anticipate a mixed Q4 alpha backdrop. Investors' focus should remain on the trade war, with skepticism regarding the sustainability of any truce and with doubts about the resilience of U.S. consumers," it said.

As a result, transversal drivers could dominate and contribute to re-correlate large stocks while fading the momentum in micro themes and factors.

In contrast, the Fed turning patient should support alpha and the bar for stock-pickers should be lower if headline markets were to remain without directionality.

Investment styles focusing on market timing and arbitrage of flow dynamic could outperform. Managers focusing on small caps could also continue to fare well.

Brexit votes - a big wildcard for a......................

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