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Alternative Market Briefing

Thinking Ahead Institute reveals top fifteen extreme risks for investors

Monday, September 09, 2019

Matthias Knab, Opalesque:

The Thinking Ahead Institute's (TAI) Extreme risks 2019 report and ranking, which categorises rare events that could have a high impact on global economic growth and asset returns, has a new top three: global temperature change, global trade collapse and cyber warfare.

The extreme risks 2019 ranking saw global temperature change climb to the top spot which covers scenarios where the planet becomes far less habitable. The number two extreme risk is the potential collapse of global trade, driven by the rise of protectionism, primarily due to developments in global politics over the past six years. Joining in third place is cyber warfare. As the world has become ever more connected, the risk of the internet being weaponised has also increased.

The Thinking Ahead Institute's top 15 extreme risks ranking for the first time includes: biodiversity collapse, abandonment of fiat money and cyber warfare, while those that have dropped out of the top 15 this year are: deflation, insurance crisis and terrorism. Those that have risen up the rankings this year are infrastructure failure (+8 places), as well as global trade collapse (+3) and currency crisis (+3). According to the report, the extreme risks that are less of a threat than in 2013 include stagnation, which has fallen eight places, as well as resource scarcity which lost top spot by falling three places.

Tim Hodgson, Head of the Thinking Ahead Group, said: "Our extreme risks ranking ha......................

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