Tue, Apr 23, 2024
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS pod
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

Comment: Kardashians and Tails

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Matthias Knab, Opalesque:

Janus Henderson Investors writes on Harvest Exchange:

The S&P 500 index reached its pre-financial crisis high the same week that the Kardashians debuted on TV. Both then had an unexpected tail event - the market crashed while the show was an astonishing success.

Three month S&P 500 straddle prices imply that the S&P 500 index is expected to move less than 3.6% over the next three months, in either direction. This is a forecast that the range of future outcomes will be much smaller than in the past.

Ten years ago, the Kardashians came into our lives. No one could have predicted that documenting the daily life of an unknown family would be a breakout hit creating worldwide fame and fortune. Coincidentally (or not) the S&P 500 Index reached its pre-financial crisis high the very same week in October 2007 that the Kardashians debuted on TV.

The subsequent global market collapse was the exact opposite of triumph. Both the Kardashians' success and the market's failure were fat-tailed events well beyond normal expectations. Hollywood and Wall Street soon adapted to a new reality - anyone could become a star, and no asset was safe. It's hard to infer expectations in entertainment, but option prices provide a measure for financial markets. If you expect a large move, but don't want to bet on direction, you can purchase an at-the-money (AT......................

To view our full article Click here

Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. KKR raises $6.4bn for the largest pan-Asia infrastructure fund[more]

    Laxman Pai, Opalesque Asia: The New York-based global investment firm KKR has raised a record $6.4bn for its second Asia-focused infrastructure fund, underlining investors' continued appetite for private markets. According to a media release from the alternative assets manager, the figure top

  2. Bucking the trend, top hedge fund makes plans for a second SPAC[more]

    From Institutional Investor: SPACs aren't dead. At least not to the folks at Cormorant Asset Management. The life sciences firm, whose hedge fund topped its peers in 2023, is confident it will match the success of its first blank-check company. Last week, the life sciences and biopharma speciali

  3. Benefit Street Partners closes fifth fund on $4.7 billion[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Benefit Street Partners has closed its fifth flagship direct lending vehicle, BSP Debt Fund V, with $4.7 billion of investable capital across the strategy. Benefit Street invests primarily in privately originated, floating rate, senior secured loans. The fun

  4. 4 hedge fund themes that are working in 2024[more]

    From The Street: A poor earnings report from Tesla (TSLA) has not hurt the indexes on Thursday. The decline in Tesla stock, which is losing its position in the Magnificent Seven pantheon, is more than offset by strong earnings from IBM (IBM) and ServiceNow (NOW) . In addition, the much higher-t

  5. Opalesque Exclusive: A global macro fund eyes opportunities in bonds[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York for New Managers: Munich-based ThirdYear Capital rebounded in 2023, following a tough year for global macro. The firm's flagship ART Global Macro strategy finished the year up 1