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Alternative Market Briefing

China: Constructive outlook, despite rating downgrade

Monday, May 29, 2017

Matthias Knab, Opalesque:

Pioneer Investments writes on Harvest Exchange:

One of the biggest uncertainties for the global economy and investors has been China - its economic transition and the implications of President Trump's protectionist policies since late 2016. Just this week, Moody downgraded China's long-term local currency and foreign currency ratings to A1 from A3 and changed their outlook to stable from negative, mainly due to concerns of high leverage. 

That said, we believe that macro risk related to China has eased somewhat into 2017 and we are now looking at China in a more constructive way. We believe that in order to understand China, and its impact on the global economy going forward, we need to answer three key questions . 

1) What is China's current economic situation? 

China's economy seems to be holding up relatively well through the first half of 2017, with  growth drivers appearing more broadly based rather than just stemming from infrastructure spending. 

  • Exports have shown some more convincing signs of recovery. 
  • Property markets have surprised on the upside, with relatively strong new starts and sales, despite targeted tightening in larger cities. 
  • There are some burgeoning signs of a mild recovery in private investment, which has been downbeat for several year......................

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