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Alternative Market Briefing

BlackRock: China on an upswing but mounting debt a concern the longer it drags on

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Matthias Knab, Opalesque:

Richard Turnill, BlackRock's Global Chief Investment Strategist, writes on Harvest Exchange:

Markets are warming up to China. The sentiment on the world's second-largest economy has swung in a positive direction - a dramatic shift from just a year ago when the country's sluggish growth was feared to be a major risk to the global economy.

The chart above shows that global companies have been getting a lot more positive on China over the past year or so, based on text mining of corporate conference calls by BlackRock's Scientific Active Equity team. It's worth noting that this is a component of our proprietary BlackRock GPS gauge, which is pointing to solid near-term growth in China.

A rebalancing economy

China is starting to reap some benefits from supply-side reform. The reform is helping boost industrial profitability and underpin commodity prices, just as its exporters are getting a lift from the rebound in global trade.

The makeup of China's equity market is undergoing a transformation as domestic consumption gradually replaces investment as a main growth driver. "New economy" companies in consumption-driven sectors such as technology and services account for over a quarter of China's onshore A-share market, and more than half of the offshore H-share market. We still see selected opp......................

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