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Alternative Market Briefing

Global economy may experience stronger growth than last year, and higher inflation

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

According to AllianceBernstein (AB), an investment management and research firm with $478bn in client assets, recent data suggest that the cyclical backdrop for the global economy continues to brighten.

Due to structural headwinds, global growth and interest rates are not likely to return to pre-crisis level, AB says in its February outlook report. Nevertheless, there is evidence of a brighter cyclical backdrop for the global economy. And it did not start with Donald Trump's promises of fiscal stimulus.

"When we consider a broad array of manufacturing indicators, including Purchasing Managers' Indices, industrial production and trade volumes, it seems clear that the global economy reached its nadir last summer," the report continues.

AB attributes the subsequent improvements to several factors: an accommodative mix of monetary and fiscal policy; a decreasing drag from the US energy shock and its impact; the possibility that the worst of the deleveraging cycle is finished in some developed economies; and the absence of any major negative shocks.

As for the potential impact of a Trump presidency, AB views it as increasing tail risks in both directions, "depending on whether we get "good Trump" ......................

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