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Melissa Brown Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York:
Generally positive economic data and market performance in Q1 led to a global decline in risk according to new research from New York-based risk analysis firm Axioma. The firm’s quarterly risk analysis showed that overall, risk lessened considerably in Q1, compared with Q4 of last year. However, risk still remains historically high.
The report shows that globally, many markets posted double-digit gains in the first quarter. The FTSE Developed index gained 11.9% in US dollar terms. The Russell 1000 was up almost 13% during the quarter- driving risk down. Risk was also down for the Russell 2000 due to a steep decline in asset and factor level volatility.
"Compared with the end of the fourth quarter, risk fell substantially for most of the benchmarks we track, although risk remained higher in most cases than it was a year ago," noted Melissa Brown, Senior Director, Applied Research in a statement. "At the end of last quarter our four risk model variants were largely in agreement in most markets, and we noted that investors might be less likely to see a 'risk surprise’. In fact, they may have been surprised by the drop in risk during the first quarter, but that is generally a pleasant surprise."
Eurobloc-related benchmarks continued to have the highest risk forecasts. The only benchmark to see a decline in risk on a year-ago basis was Japan, refle...................... To view our full article Click here
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