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Alternative Market Briefing

Tullett Prebon: American decline assured without tough leadership

Thursday, February 09, 2012

amb
Dr. Tim Morgan
Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York:

Are we in the age of American decline? Figures ranging from the President of the United States, to economists and business leaders and even Clint Eastwood have been weighing in recently on this question. On Tuesday, Dr. Tim Morgan, Global Head of Research, at London-based inter-dealer broker Tullett Prebon, added his voice to the chorus with a new report entitled Armageddon USA? America at the Crossroads. The report examines the rise of China, the so-called American decline and the implications for the global economy.

In the report, Dr. Morgan takes a sharply critical view of America’s current economic and fiscal state as well as making a thorough examination of China’s rise. Dr. Morgan asserts that official U.S. data has been subjected to an incremental, decades-long process of statistical obfuscation. Inflation numbers are hugely distorted by "hedonic adjustment," geometric weighting," and "substitution." While the exclusion certain classes of US workers makes unemployment numbers as reported, almost meaningless.

He goes on to explain that "reported gross domestic product (GDP) includes $2.3 trillion of non-cash "imputed" dollars that do not really exist," and that as a result the US economy has been faltering for more than a decade.

"America has bought into the Ricardian logic of "compar......................

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