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Alternative Market Briefing

Reinhart: Greek Crisis Could Have Been Spotted Early On

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

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Carmen M. Reinhart
Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York:

Carmen M. Reinhart is the co-author of the best selling book, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. In the book, Reinhart and co-author Kenneth S. Rogoff examine the empirical data surrounding various types of financial crises and how despite changing market conditions, financial crises tend to result from the same set of cycles. Reinhart is also the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was recently interviewed by Sona Blessing for Opalesque Radio.

Through her research, Reinhart has been able to isolate the symptoms and early warning signs of impending financial crisis. She looks not only at debt crises, but also banking crises and currency crashes to identify repeating patterns over time. She illustrates how these patterns can be seen early on and also shows how crises in one sector can morph, drawing in other sectors and eventually leading governments to create significant financial downturns like what we are seeing spread throughout developed economies today.

"We seem to learn remarkably little from past experiences," Reinhart says. "For example, in the current context we have been talking about Greece for over two years in a sense of denial that no restructuring was necessary. … Sure there are things that are different, this is a currency union fo......................

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