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Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Following the 8-9 Dec. Summit of the European Council, a draft of the new EU intergovernmental treaty was circulated on Friday. This fiscal compact aims to establish more centralised EU control over national budgets and sanctions for countries that do not meet targets. It must be adopted by the 17 members of the Eurozone, and could, apparently, come into effect after only nine governments ratify it.

The treaty, even if it shows the Eurozone’s commitment to the currency, may be obliterated by the markets or by members’ rejection of it anyway. Besides, its scope is quite unclear, and it will not be signed until March 2012. What has to be sorted immediately, before insolvency beckons, is jumping through the hoops of successive summits. Soon it will be too late to save the currency and this could lead to global recession.

Not without reasons, all-pervading pessimism is the mood-du-jour.

All in all, the risk of a Eurozone break-up and of individual EU Member States defaulting remains, said international law firm K&L Gates. This is echoed by many recent commentaries.

EU leaders need to plan for orderly break-up of euro The recent Eurozone Summit’s main outcomes to be included in a new treaty were: • A fiscal compact, imposing fiscal discipline on Euro......................

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