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Alternative Market Briefing

Hedge funds based on systematic trend following are predicted to make a comeback after difficult year

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

By Beverly Chandler, Opalesque London:

"Trend following hasn’t finished" says Jason Rolf of the Amati Systematic Trend Fund. The firm launched their trend following fund in June 2011 and have enjoyed volatile ups and downs since then which have left them down 5% year to date, in a year when most trend followers have had a dreadful time with performance.

"This is a long term investment business so painful periods of drawdowns or sideways runs are expected" Rolf says. "Doommongers say trend following has had its day but that’s typical of when things don’t do well for a while."

Rolf quotes the returns showing up in the Newedge CTA sub-trend index which is made up of the biggest trend followers in the market with that index showing a loss of 7% for the year. The Amati fund invests 100% in futures in oil; gas; stock indices; currencies; bonds and interest rates; metals and softs, split into bio and agricultural.

June was cruel to them leaving them down 9% after their first three weeks of trading, July showed a recovery of around 5% but October left them with another loss.

October was the month that unseated many trend followers. "The markets moved lower in a down trend" says Rolf. "There was one huge totally unexpected rally in stocks whi......................

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