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Alternative Market Briefing

CTA Metolius Capital awaits clarity about Aussie/US dollar currency pair

Monday, August 22, 2011

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

The Australian dollar (A$) traded 0.5% from a two-week high against the US$ as concerns about the global economic recovery eased, supporting demand for higher-yielding investments, reported SFGate on August 18th, 2011. The A$ was at US$1.036 that day, compared to US$1.097 on August 1st and US$1.016 on January 3rd. On the other hand, the only currency that appreciated against the Australian dollar over the last five years was the Japanese Yen, which bought A$0.94 on January 1, 2007 and now buys A$0.87, a drop of 7%, ARN commented.

According to Metolius Capital, a multi-strategy CTA, things remain to be seen on the Aussie dollar. The wind has been behind the currency for a long time – and interest rate differentials, Asian strength, commodity strength, exports, material prices versus precious metals, etc. - some of those are beginning to turn for the first time in a while.

"Then there is the pure price component that is interesting to us: our proprietary low volatility reading," Tom Mazza, one of Melotius’ partners, told Opalesque. "Some of the best trends start from very low volatility points. Silver last year is a good example of that. I think......................

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