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Alternative Market Briefing

Gloomy forecast for global economy from hedge fund firm Tiberius, Part Two

Thursday, June 30, 2011

From Precy Dumlao, Opalesque Asia:

In our previous article about Tiberius’ latest Tiberius Market Commentarydiscussed how the rout in the commodities markets in May fulfilled the earlier prediction by the Swiss-based asset manager.

Here in part two, we will look forward at Tiberius’ gloomy outlook for the global economy.

According to the firm’s report, almost all current economic indicators are pointing to a slowdown in the ongoing recovery of the world’s economy. In the U.S., early data is showing a cooling of economic activities, particularly in the closely watched ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector which fell 60.4 points to 53.5 points to May.

All these factors, as well as the depressing macroeconomic data from Asia were being used by many financial analysts to predict a new round of recession and that the economic rebound after the 2007 global financial crisis, is about to end.

But Tiberius is saying that this forecast is simply "jumping the gun," because it is unrealistic in the first place "to expect the U.S. economy to replicate the boom of previous recovery cycles." The asset manager explained that the below-average credit expansion and a consolidation of private finances are likely to set strict limits on the US economy’s growth potential.

American consumers are holding on to their purses and ......................

To view our full article Click here

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