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Alternative Market Briefing

Geo-political risk is here and is probably here to stay, says Threadneedle manager Nicolas Robin

Monday, May 09, 2011

From Kirsten Bischoff, Opalesque New York:

"Geo-political risk is here and is probably here to stay," says Nicolas Robin, co-manager of the Threadneedle (Lux) Enhanced Commodities Fund to Sona Blessing in a recent Opalesque Radio interview. With one market-shaking event after another this year, it is easy to see how this risk may be managers' biggest worry post-financial crisis. And we have seen managers in the commodities space particularly whipsawed by the market shifting nature of these events. The Dow Jones Credit Suisse Managed Future Index has bounced from positive to negative all year, recording -1.18 in January, +1.73% in February, -2.25% in March, +4.78% in April.

"For commodity-oriented managers, geopolitical events in the Middle East and Japan resulted in significant commodity price action in the first quarter. The energy complex was most affected by the Middle East, while Japan's disasters impacted metals due, among other things, to potential disruptions in Japanese car production," observes the research team at Credit Suisse in their asset management quarterly review.

Managers have been bullish on energy, particularly oil, due to supply concerns and the uprising in the MidEast earlier this year. Last Monday, wit......................

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