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Alternative Market Briefing

Positive market indicators point to possible slow recovery for global economies

Friday, September 11, 2009

By Christine Gaylican, Opalesque Asia:

As global equity markets continue to rally for several days, analysts point at the glaring discrepancy in that bond yields remain low and have not improved in spite the positive economic data.

Analysts from JP Morgan Asset Management Group, from the London-based firm Russell Investments, and from Opalesque's Technical Research team are wary that these signs could be indicative that the worst is over or that possibly a slow period of recovery is about to start.

Time to look at other indicators

Opalesque's latest technical research briefing (Source) showed that the 10-year US and European government bonds have declined by 51 basis points (bp) and 25 bp, respectively. Moreover, there has been a rally at the front end of yield curves with two-year yields falling by 37bp -44bp in Europe, the U.K. and in the U.S., reported Bloomberg.

JP Morgan Global Asset management's team of strategists said in a weekly report issued on September-09 that though this is hardly consistent with the claim that a solid recovery across global financial markets will occur, other indicators point to this direction.

"This revival is corroborated by our Currency Team's proprietary leading indicators which are now signalling that economic growth over the next 1-2 quarters is likely to accelerate back towards (previous) trend rates of growth," the......................

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