•  
• Tweet
•  
•        Print
•  
•         Track Keywords
•  
• 

From Komfie Manalo, Asia:

Participants at the recent Opalesque New York Roundtable all agreed that current macro signals indicate of a “muted recovery” in 2009, and added that the markets should look towards 2010, “because it is hard to believe that the economists who missed the downturn so completely are going to be that accurate on the rebound.”

Tim Schuler, investment strategist for FoHFs firm Permal Asset Management said: “There are several points to consider about whether or not the third quarter sees the bottom or at least the turn. Since World War II, economic recoveries have been driven by personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and residential investment, and clearly with the current overhang in housing inventory, residential investment is not going to be a driver.” He added that unemployment would still go up to 10% this year.

Macro signals used for their strategic positioning Bill Geisler of hedge fund firm Malbec Partners (see last week’s Exclusive on Malbec here) said that the question was not so much whether we would see the end of the recession by this summer or maybe by the third quarter, but rather what the magnitude of the move up was. “We don't think it will be very great or sustainable, for a lot of reasons” he......................

To view our full article Click here