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Alternative Market Briefing

Malbec Partners: How understanding core countries (G3 and G10) helps your emerging markets strategy

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

From Kirsten Bischoff, Opalesque New York:

Bill Geisler, Portfolio Manager for the Malbec Emerging Markets Strategy at New York-based Malbec Partners recently spoke to Opalesque about the effects the core countries (G3 and G10) have had on the emerging markets and what we might expect to see in some of the emerging market regions in the future.

You and your colleague, Senior Research Strategist Lars Pedersen, have worked together for over a dozen years and you recently re-assembled much of your team for work on the strategy at Malbec. What is it that makes your team's approach to emerging markets different? The best way to label us is an emerging market macro strategy. I have collaborated with my head of research on emerging market opportunities since 1994. Essentially, our strategy differs from the majority of the market because, while we will take directional risk, our analysis starts at the G3 or G10 macro level first.

Investors into emerging markets typically decide what they like and don't like in those markets and invest in those areas accordingly. We think there are potential risks out there that might affect emerging markets outside their own idiosyncratic risk, whether that be political risk, economic risk, or finance related risk.

If you go back to the 1994 to 2008 period, we had several dislocations within emerging markets, whether it be the Asia crisis, followed by Russia shor......................

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