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Opalesque Exclusive: Citi: Global recession has come too early for Africa but its impact on the continent can only be limited
By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London:
At a Securities Africa conference on Sub-Saharan Investments organised at the London offices of Citi in March, David Cowan, Citigroup’s economist for Africa said that even though global growth was slowing, the picture was not all bleak – especially for Africa.
The IMF forecasted a growth rate of 3.25% for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2009, a rate that was dragged down by the forecast for South Africa. But the impact of South Africa to date is not as bad. Uganda will grow from 8% last year to 7 to 6.5% this year for example. “Yes, there is a concern that growth is slowing but you can’t actually see it in Africa,” Cowan said.
Commodity, oil and metal prices have risen significantly from the 80s to now too. African oil exporters have grown more rapidly than non-oil exporters, he said, but growth is a function of production rather than price. Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Nigeria have grown the fastest.
There has also been a noticeable change in trade patterns as the EU is becoming a less important partner. But there is still a key link to the EU, and that is remittances: “the remittance growth has been an important growth factor,” he said, as the numbers of employed in the...................... To view our full article Click here
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