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Alternative Market Briefing

Tiberius says commodities will come back in mid-2009, agri outlook mixed but with opportunities

Thursday, February 05, 2009

From Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: A report by Tiberius Asset Management AG, a Switzerland-based commodity fund house, released last week entitled 'Capital Markets Outlook 2009' forecasted renewed interest in commodities as an investment vehicle in the middle half of this year.

The report predicted the grain and oilseed sector to turn in a below-average performance in 2009. But the industrial-use commodities will have better appreciation potential once the world's economy recovers from the present slump.

Demand The demand for wheat is expected to grow in the coming years since the grain is used mainly by the food sector. The decreasing wheat acreage in the U.S. will also help boost wheat prices, according to Tiberius.

The declining meat consumption in the U.S. and Europe will have the negative effects on corn and soybeans. But this could be offset by a growing taste for meat in Asia, especially in China. The report said soybeans will benefit more than corn, since soybean meal is the preferred feed for hogs and poultry because of its higher protein content.

The sharp drop in the prices of crude oil in the world market did much harm to corn-based ethanol. At current prices, ethanol producers in the U.S. can only operate with negative margins. Indeed, Tiberius foresees a very bleak picture for ethanol as a demand component for corn.

Supply The extended dry spells in Argentina and......................

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