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Alternative Market Briefing

Distressed Investors overwhelmingly believe the once in a cycle opportunity has finally arrived, first two quarters of 2009 present best opportunities

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

By Kirsten Bischoff, Opalesque New York: For distressed investors who have spent much of the past few years watching the credit cycle, the time many have been waiting for may finally be at hand. Debtwire, in conjunction with law firm Bingham McCutchen, FTI Consulting, and Macquarie Capital released the ‘Annual North American Distressed Debt Outlook for 2009’ with a palpable level of excitement on Tuesday.

The report opens revisiting the predictions of “financial Armageddon” distressed specialists have been relaying since the first such study was done in December 2005, as the moment appears to finally be at hand, creating immense opportunity for this in the asset class.

The 2009 study respondents, of which more than half (52%) are hedge funds, and the majority of which classify their core investment strategy as distressed debt (followed by event driven), overwhelmingly cited the first two quarters of 2009 as the targeted times for “once in a cycle” investment opportunities.

“The very bold will start to put their money in now and already have,” noted Michael Reilly, Partner in Bingham’s Financial Restructuring Department in a meeting Tuesday morning.

The enthusiasm of those polled was evident as managers cited expectations for the strategy to achieve 20+% returns in 2009. However, those leaping into the fray will require the fortitude to deal with the possibility of further short term pain (Hedge Fund Research reported distressed and restructurin......................

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