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By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London: Dr John Chipman, CEO of London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, had a relatively optimistic outlook on the topic of geopolitical risk and financial markets at the GAIM conference in Geneva last week. Here is a small summary of his conclusions.

Global geopolitics is as volatile as are the markets, said Dr Chipman. There are more actors and a palpable shift in the balance of power towards the Gulf and Asia. The weakness in global governance means that balances of power between states will be an important ordering principle of international affairs.

There may be a rise in ungoverned areas, such ass Somalia, parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo, regions around the Gulf of Guinea, the FATA in Pakistan, which would amount to the development of a kind of Fourth World, where no rational or international rule of law seems to run, and where international intervention is weak.

It is possible that blame put on the financial crisis and globalisation will inspire some separatist movements and identity politics, as in Bolivia. Natural resource nationalism in LatAm will remain high and the pressure on governments to return to the people a greater share of natural resource revenue a continued challenge for those working in the extractive industries.

The decline in energy prices, the financial crisis and Obama’s election all nevertheless mark the start of a more pragmatic approach to international affairs. Climat......................

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