This article addresses some
of the issues related to the
management and measurement
of foreign exchange risk as applied to
emerging markets. It is, however, just as
relevant to any asset classes and asset
managers with nonnormal distribu-
tions, particularly those with fat tails
such as hedge funds.
Key findings:
The measurement and management of foreign
exchange (FX) risk, particularly in emerging market
portfolios, often is not fully understood.
The most common approach to measurement and
management of Currency risk is Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis.
VaR is a powerful tool and it encompasses a great
deal of important information, but it should not be the end
of the risk management story.
Explicit tail risk needs to be measured and
monitored.
It is strongly recommended that investors
consider using explicit risk parameters that measure
uncorrelated VaR, where clustering phenomenon may break down
long-term correlation relationships.
Investors also need to carefully assess liquidity
constraints, and limits should specifically be put in place
to limit exposure to illiquid currencies and assets (with
obvious impacts on capacity).
It is sensible to proactively monitor and manage
tail risk and adjust appropriately to account for this risk.
A manager may have an exceptional Sharpe ratio
with limited drawdowns but still have significant tail risk
inherent in the distributi......................