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By Benedicte Gravrand, Geneva: Stephen Cohen, managing director at Troika Dialog, gave Opalesque his outlook on Russia in 2008: "Is 2008 the year of the (Russian) Bear? This looks like a good bet since either the scale of the credit downturn is still vastly underestimated and global equity markets will have a significant further downward lurch or monetary easing will kick in at some point and revive markets, which seems more likely. Either way Russia should do relatively well..." (For more see download link below.)

According to the latest monthly fund report, the managers at Troika believe that investors may be over-concerned with political risks to the Russian stock market. Partly because of poor global markets and partly due to the coming electoral outcome in April, the Russian market fell very slightly during November as the RTS$ Index went down 0.1% (the RTS stock index .IRTS ended down 1.61% at 1967.7 points on 22 January). But the man expected to be the new president, Dmitry Medvedev, is also expected to ensure Putin’s continuity in the seat of power, and as a result it is also widely assumed that there will be full continuity of the economic policies of the last 6 or 7 years and that the new Administration will remain pro-growth, pro-business, in favour of increasing private sector participation and reasonably fiscally conservative.

The managers also believe the economic outlook remains excellent w......................

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