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Matthias Knab reports live from the MARHedge Bermuda conference: Jim O’Neill, Head of Global Economic Research, Goldman Sachs says that contrary to the original report, he thinks that already by 2035, i.e. five years earlier then previously projected, the BRICs GDP may match the G6. India could surpass Japan in 2035 to be the third largest economy. India would have the best potential of the BRICs countries, possibly growing to 50 times bigger than today.
O’Neill added that wealth creation within the BRIC countries has to be viewed as a separate development from GDP growth. He believes that the wealth/capita will likely be still less then the G6 countries, with the exception of Russia.
Going beyond the BRICs, Goldman Sachs has defined a new family of emerging countries called the “N-11” (“Next 11”), including countries like Bangladesh, Egypt etc. Including those countries, the GDP ranking by 2050 could look like the following (in descending order):
China, U.S., India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Germany, UK, France, Indonesia, Nigeria, Korea, Italy, Canada, Vietnam, Turkey, Philippines, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, Spain, Netherlands, Bangladesh, Poland, Sweden.
O’Neill said that India’s labour force will outnumber China, and could actually be as big as China and U.S. together. “If you think we have issues with a rising China at the moment, wait until India is going beyond the services industry.”
He further pointed out that all these developments are lik...................... To view our full article Click here
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