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Matthias Knab reports from the HedgeFundsWorld conference in Tokyo: I will add from my notes and complete yesterday’s story from Bloomberg: “Quantum Founder Rogers Says Hedge Fund Industry Has Peaked”.

Rogers expects a hard landing for China within the next 12 months. “Something will happen, it is hard to say what, but one day you will read it in the papers...maybe it’s a war with Taiwan, maybe something else, but something will happen”. But this will not slow down the Chinese story, which could hold on for the rest of the century, nor the commodity bullmarket that is going on since 1999. Rogers recommended to await this coming market correction (“there will be setbacks along the way”), but then enter vigurously the Chinese and commodities markets.

According the Rogers, commodities are still cheap (sugar 80% below alltime high and even oil would be 50% below all time high if you adjust for inflation) and have a longterm run ahead of them. Through the centuries, commodity bull markets went on for about 16 – 25 years. Rogers encourages to “learn about commodities”, altough the recipe is simple: supply and demand, with the speciality that even if demand goes down, when supplies are diminuishing, the prices still go up. He mentioned lead as an example, which is at all time high.

Investors would not be able to generate sufficient returns in the stock market, and the bond market would deteriorate even further, leaving investors with commodities – which also are available ......................

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