A SQUARE :: 05Sep07 Innovative modelling from RMS' perspective
Robert Muir Wood
Some of these innovations include:
a) Making modelling comprehensive for the Core perils -- as for example by including detailed inland flooding in hurricane loss modelling, tsunamis in earthquake loss modelling as well as developing physical models of all the potential secondary consequences (what we call Super Cat elements) that can happen in the largest events - such as dam failure following an earthquake, pollution following the rupture of industrial tanks, fires that may spread through a city after earthquakes, windstorms or floods etc.
b) Expanding the domain of modelling to perils such as volcanic eruption and wildfire, and to new risk classes such as disease pandemics, all classes of fire, correlated outbreaks of liability etc.
c) Exploring how to provide a comprehensive perspective of uncertainties in modelling - including the representation of model and parameter error.
d) Exploring catastrophe loss modelling in a future climate.