Mon, Nov 24, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Opalesque Futures Intelligence

David Stendahl Signal Financial Group: Hang Sang Projection on Seasonal Bias

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

David Stendahl is a consultant to managed futures CTAs and author of several books and videos, including Profit Strategies: Unlocking Trading Performance with Money Management and Dynamic Trading Indicators (Marketplace Books).  Mr. Stendhal builds trading algorithms for various quantitative investment firms.

In a recent research note Mr. Stendhal noted that Hang Seng Index (HSI) looks to have a short-term seasonal bearish bias with good down side potential.  He basis this off his seasonal projection weighting of four historic seasonal averages for Hang Seng Index. Specifically, he combined the 5/10/15/20 yearly averages to form a single seasonal line (Chart Below). This seasonal weighted line (shown in blue) is then projected forward 21 calendar days from the outlook run date. Grey circles provide perspective for potential 7/14/21 day return projections. Low and high points over the 21-day period are highlighted in yellow and green respectfully, pointing out potential returns. The final return figure listed on the chart relates the Low to High (L2H) point or High to Low (H2L) point depending upon the Low/High historic order. Each of these return figures are posted at the bottom of the chart and should be used strictly for reference purposes only, as the Seasonal Projection chart is not to be used for buy/sell recommendations. The true use for the Seasonal Projection chart is as a position sizing tool -- indicating when to trade more or less aggressively. If the seasonal projection is bullish or bearish, and this outlook corresponds with your trading system, you might consider trading more aggressively. If however, your system conflicts with the seasonal outlook, you might consider trading more conservatively. The market outlook, shown towards the top of the chart, reflects various return data points compiled into a seasonal projection. Respect the seasonal trends, is his message.  The best time to use Seasonal Projection charts is when the current Hang Seng Index contract is highly correlated to its 5/10/15/20 yearly seasonal charts.

Seasonal Projection:



 
This article was published in Opalesque Futures Intelligence.
Opalesque Futures Intelligence
Opalesque Futures Intelligence
Opalesque Futures Intelligence
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Regulatory - Stringent rules for hedge funds make the financial system fragile[more]

    From FT.com: …It is one thing to impose a regulatory burden when there is a clear need to do so. Banks are underwritten by taxpayers via deposit insurance as well as the too-big-to-fail safety net; they need to be reined in, and if they shrink as a result, that may be welcome. But it is another thin

  2. Investing - Apple: Hedge funds are crazy about it, Greenlight Capital took stake in Citizens Financial after IPO, Tiger Global added to Hertz, exited Dollar General last quarter, Oberweis sells NQ Mobile stake as Valiant adds shares, Whitney Tilson sticks to losing bet on MagicJack shares, Brigade Capital backs €90m Quinn sale[more]

    Apple: Hedge funds are crazy about it From Techinsider.net: Apple Inc. is still the most popular stocks among hedge funds. According to a recent report by hedge fund tracking site Insider Monkey, more than one out of 5 hedge funds are invested in Apple Inc. At the moment there are

  3. Greenlight Re CEO says hedge fund reinsurance strategy buzz is validating[more]

    From Artemis.bm: The attention being paid to the hedge fund reinsurance business model and the fact that others are now looking to leverage bits of it within their own strategies, is validating for reinsurer Greenlight Capital Re, according to CEO Bart Hedges. There has been an increasing buzz

  4. Legal - Hedge fund manager fights £8m tax tribunal ruling[more]

    From FT.com: A hedge fund manager who may have to repay £8m in tax is trying to overturn a tribunal ruling that found he had attempted to shelter millions in an avoidance scheme. Patrick Degorce, chief investment officer at Theleme Partners, lost a tax tribunal case last year. HM Revenue & Customs c

  5. Europe - Hedge funds face exit tax as Iceland central bank discusses plan[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Hedge funds and other creditors with claims against Iceland’s failed banks face an exit tax as the island looks for ways to unwind capital controls without hurting the economy. The government targets having a plan it can present by year-end that would map out how Iceland will sca