Mon, Aug 3, 2015
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Opalesque Futures Intelligence

David Stendahl Signal Financial Group: Hang Sang Projection on Seasonal Bias

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

David Stendahl is a consultant to managed futures CTAs and author of several books and videos, including Profit Strategies: Unlocking Trading Performance with Money Management and Dynamic Trading Indicators (Marketplace Books).  Mr. Stendhal builds trading algorithms for various quantitative investment firms.

In a recent research note Mr. Stendhal noted that Hang Seng Index (HSI) looks to have a short-term seasonal bearish bias with good down side potential.  He basis this off his seasonal projection weighting of four historic seasonal averages for Hang Seng Index. Specifically, he combined the 5/10/15/20 yearly averages to form a single seasonal line (Chart Below). This seasonal weighted line (shown in blue) is then projected forward 21 calendar days from the outlook run date. Grey circles provide perspective for potential 7/14/21 day return projections. Low and high points over the 21-day period are highlighted in yellow and green respectfully, pointing out potential returns. The final return figure listed on the chart relates the Low to High (L2H) point or High to Low (H2L) point depending upon the Low/High historic order. Each of these return figures are posted at the bottom of the chart and should be used strictly for reference purposes only, as the Seasonal Projection chart is not to be used for buy/sell recommendations. The true use for the Seasonal Projection chart is as a position sizing tool -- indicating when to trade more or less aggressively. If the seasonal projection is bullish or bearish, and this outlook corresponds with your trading system, you might consider trading more aggressively. If however, your system conflicts with the seasonal outlook, you might consider trading more conservatively. The market outlook, shown towards the top of the chart, reflects various return data points compiled into a seasonal projection. Respect the seasonal trends, is his message.  The best time to use Seasonal Projection charts is when the current Hang Seng Index contract is highly correlated to its 5/10/15/20 yearly seasonal charts.

Seasonal Projection:



 
This article was published in Opalesque Futures Intelligence.
Opalesque Futures Intelligence
Opalesque Futures Intelligence
Opalesque Futures Intelligence
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: Despite bumpy June/July, CTAs hold on[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: To say that things have been rocky in managed futures recently is putting it mildly. In June, the industry saw its worst month on a performance basis in the past four years. Then yesterday,

  2. Investing - Hedge fund billionaires bet on London as revival gathers pace[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: London’s fund industry is bouncing back, and U.S. billionaires Steven A. Cohen and Ken Griffin are grabbing a piece of the action. Griffin’s Citadel and Millennium Management, a hedge fund run by Israel Englander, have bulked up in London, where asset growth is outpacing the U.S.

  3. Other Voices: Same day reporting and the evolving role of fund administrators[more]

    By: Scott Price, Head of Business Development and Client Management for North America, Maitland Ernst & Young’s latest glob

  4. Opalesque Roundup: Hedge fund assets rose to 11th consecutive quarterly record level: hedge fund news, week 31[more]

    In the week ending 24 July, 2015, the total global hedge fund industry assets rose to the 11th consecutive quarterly record level in 2Q15 to $2.97tln; Eurekahedge reported that hedge funds raised $93bn in the first six months of 2015; The SS&C GlobeOp Forward Redemption Indicator for July 201

  5. Cowen Group, Inc. to acquire Conifer Securities[more]

    Cowen Group, Inc. and Conifer Securities, LLC had announced the signing of a definitive agreement under which Cowen will acquire Conifer Securities, the prime services division of Conifer Financial Services LLC. The transaction, the terms of which have not yet been disclosed, was approved by the boa

banner