Tue, Oct 17, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: Global economy is best positioned in years to breach growth ceiling - yet headwinds persist

Thursday, October 05, 2017

amb
Willem Verhagen
Authored by Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist, Macro & Strategy at NN Investment Partners.

Global economic growth in recent years has been fairly stable at a level clearly below that of expansion periods before the global financial crisis, when both nominal and real growth were substantially higher on average. Today, growth is better-positioned to break out on the upside than at any time since the crisis, but whether this will happen is far from certain, and will mainly depend on productivity growth and geopolitical tensions.

NN Investment Partners (NN IP) sees two future economic scenarios: Scenario 1 is global growth breaking above the 3.5% level that has marked its ceiling over the last six years; Scenario 2 is a continuation of a range-bound economy in which the economy remains within a certain limited bandwidth.

"Scenario 1 of higher growth will only happen if productivity growth moves sustainably higher," Willem Verhagen explains. "In such a world, core government bond yields would gradually rise towards levels much higher than today. If growth accelerates, perhaps because of strengthened consumer and business confidence and higher spending, it would initially be unlikely to lead to a big acceleration in monetary tightening if inflation remained below target. Over time, it would lead to more interest rate hikes, but these would be positive because they would happen amid faster growth."

"Monetary policy normalisation in the US and the reduction in ......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Regulatory - David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge, Carried interest tax: How much does it matter?, Odey sees 'terrifying' mix in MiFID, tapering, asset values, Hedge funds come together to share cost of MiFID and research, SEC turns up the heat on U.S. investment advisers, India's Sebi asks hedge funds to report investments in commodity derivatives[more]

    David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge From CNBC.com: David Stockman is warning about the Trump administration's tax overhaul plan, Federal Reserve policy, saying they could play into a severe stock market sell-off. Stockman, the R

  2. North America - Puerto Rico rejects loan offers, accusing hedge funds of trying to profit off hurricanes[more]

    From TheIintercept.com: Puerto Rico has rejected a bondholder group's offer to issue the territory additional debt as a response to the devastation of Hurricane Maria. Officials with Puerto Rico's Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority said the offer was "not viable" and would harm the islan

  3. Investing - WPP targeted by short-selling American hedge fund, Sun co-founder sells secretive hedge fund on big chip trade[more]

    WPP targeted by short-selling American hedge fund From Cityam.com: An American hedge fund has mounted a bet against WPP, the world's largest advertising group, with a trade worth almost £90m. Lone Pine Capital has built a short position worth 0.51 per cent of the FTSE 100 company,

  4. Hedge funds up as industry adjusts to rising rates[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Hedge funds have reshuffled their portfolio after nearly four weeks of rising rates as the Lyxor Hedge Fund Index was up +0.2% from 19 September to 26 (+1.1% YTD), fuelled by strong results of global macro funds, Lyxor Ass

  5. Manager Profile - How the world's hedge fund king used 'idea meritocracy' to become a billionaire[more]

    From Forbes.com: In 1982, Ray Dalio made what he calls the biggest mistake of his life. He made a bet that there would be an economic collapse stemming from a debt crisis. And he was wrong. He lost money. He lost his client's money. He had to let people go from his firm and borrow money from his dad