Thu, Dec 14, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: Global economy is best positioned in years to breach growth ceiling - yet headwinds persist

Thursday, October 05, 2017

amb
Willem Verhagen
Authored by Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist, Macro & Strategy at NN Investment Partners.

Global economic growth in recent years has been fairly stable at a level clearly below that of expansion periods before the global financial crisis, when both nominal and real growth were substantially higher on average. Today, growth is better-positioned to break out on the upside than at any time since the crisis, but whether this will happen is far from certain, and will mainly depend on productivity growth and geopolitical tensions.

NN Investment Partners (NN IP) sees two future economic scenarios: Scenario 1 is global growth breaking above the 3.5% level that has marked its ceiling over the last six years; Scenario 2 is a continuation of a range-bound economy in which the economy remains within a certain limited bandwidth.

"Scenario 1 of higher growth will only happen if productivity growth moves sustainably higher," Willem Verhagen explains. "In such a world, core government bond yields would gradually rise towards levels much higher than today. If growth accelerates, perhaps because of strengthened consumer and business confidence and higher spending, it would initially be unlikely to lead to a big acceleration in monetary tightening if inflation remained below target. Over time, it would lead to more interest rate hikes, but these would be positive because they would happen amid faster growth."

"Monetary policy normalisation in the US and the reduction in ......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Mediobanca acquires majority stakes in Swiss hedge fund[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Listed diversified banking group Mediobanca SpA said it has acquired a majority stake in Geneva-based hedge fund firm RAM Active Investments SA (RAM AI), an active and alternative asset manager offering a range of act

  2. Launches - Ex-BlueCrest team to open over $200m hedge fund, Greg Coffey, a hedge fund star who retired at 41, is eyeing a comeback, Brevan Howard plans Greek funds as bond rally signals revival[more]

    Ex-BlueCrest team to open over $200m hedge fund From Bloomberg.com: A team of traders who left BlueCrest Capital Management earlier this year raised more than $200 million for their own hedge fund focused on Asian stocks, according to a person familiar with the matter. Ovata Capital Manag

  3. North America - Miami could attract hedge funds if SALT deductions axed[more]

    From Law360.com: For years, inertia has been Nitin Motwani's greatest foe in his attempts to lure hedge fund owners in the northeast to Miami, which he has pitched as a tropical low-tax paradise. But with the Republican tax bill proposing to eliminate deductions for state and local taxes, he's sensi

  4. Northleaf Capital Partners closes debut private credit fund on $670M[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Northleaf Capital Partners has closed its debut private credit fund - Northleaf Private Credit I - on $670 million. The vehicle will invest in private credit transactions in Europe and North America, with a primary focus on lending to private equity-backed compa

  5. ...And Finally - The ongoing gun saga in the U.S.[more]

    From Newsoftheweird.com: As elder members of the First United Methodist Church in Tellico Plains, Tennessee, gathered on Nov. 16 to discuss the recent church shooting in Sutherland Springs, Texas, one of those present asked if anyone had brought a gun to church. One man spoke up and said he c