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Alternative Market Briefing

Record breaking Japanese GDP: expected economic growth for six straight quarters

Friday, August 11, 2017

Matthias Knab, Opalesque:

Ahead of the release of Japan's preliminary Q2 2017 GDP figures on Monday, 14 August, Katsunori Kitakura, lead strategist at SuMi TRUST, forecasts continued growth, marking the first time in 11 years that the country's economy has grown for six straight quarters:

"We forecasts that the Q2 2017 GDP figures will show the Japanese economy has continued to grow at an annualised growth rate of 2.7%, a notable increase from its 1.0% growth in Q1 2017. This will be the first time in 11 years that Japan's economy has grown for six quarters in a row.

"In contrast to what we saw for Q1 2017, we do not expect any potential of negative revisions for the Q2 2017 figures. As such, we believe there will be no surprises in September, when revised GDP data for the second quarter of the year is released.

"Overall, we observed that domestic demand grew at favourable rate in the last quarter, based on rising personal consumption supported by a positive labour market (e.g. low unemployment and an increasing job-opening to applicant ratio), and an improvement in consumer sentiment. Also, moderate consumer price increases have given Japanese people more money to spend - and this was translated in economic terms. Capital expenditure has kept its positive momentum on the back of strong earnings growth. Fiscal stimulus from 2016's supplementary budget, which focused on investment and funding for public works, also became a supporting factor for the ec......................

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