Fri, Sep 19, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: Fitch's GDP forecast for developed economies and BRICs

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

amb
An Opalesque column for global macro investors.

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Financial markets have been on the road to recovery, but real economy has not, says Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency, in its latest Global Economic Outlook Special Report. In the fourth quarter of 2012 (Q412), the Eurozone and the U.S. had the weakest quarterly GDP growth since 2009. Meanwhile, spreads on risky assets tightened and some stock markets peaked.

Fitch forecasts economic growth of 1% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014 for major advanced economies, 4.7% and 5% for emerging markets, and 2.2% and 2.8% globally.

In the U.S., real GDP grew by 0.1% (annualised) in Q412, disappointing higher expectations. This was a deceleration from Q312 (3.1%), and largely due to a sharp downturn in federal and especially defence spending and private inventories, according to Fitch. However, consumer spending, residential corporate investment, and the labour market remained reasonably healthy in Q412. Fitch revised down its 2013 forecast because of Q412 and also because of "additional headwinds from the $85bn (0.5% of GDP) automatic spending cuts that come into effect on 1 March (the sequester)." The GDP forecast for the U.S. is 1.9% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014. Fitch expects consumer spending to remain resilient, unemployment to remain above 6.5%, and the Fed to maintain its monetary stance (asset purchases and low rates) until the end of 2014.

In Japan, ......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. SEC charges 19 investment firms and one trader for breach of Rule 105[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started a push to enhance the enforcement of Rule 105 of Regulation M last year to uncover hedge funds and private equity firms that have illegally participated in an offering of a stock after short selling it duri

  2. Fund managers, bullish on Europe, anticipate monetary policy separation of Fed and ECB[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: At least 202 fund managers with $556bn of assets under management said that while the European Central Bank (ECB) has eased its monetary policy that sent sentiments towards Europe to pick up, the Fed is expected to hike its rate in the spring of 2015. Investor

  3. News Briefs - Limited partners of investment managers may be subject to self-employment taxes, Just one week left until NYC's Rocktoberfest[more]

    Limited partners of investment managers may be subject to self-employment taxes On September 5, 2014, the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) issued Chief Counsel Advice 201436049, concluding that members of an investment manager were subject to self-employment taxes with respect to their e

  4. Institutions - Adviser's faith in hedge funds unshaken by CalPERS' move Advisers weigh in on CalPERS’ decision, Gina Raimondo sees no reason to follow California’s lead, exit hedge funds, Danish pension funds step up 'alternative investments'[more]

    Adviser's faith in hedge funds unshaken by CalPERS' move From WSJ.com: Financial advisers who use hedge funds in their clients' portfolios say they aren't rethinking that approach after a huge California pension fund announced plans to exit the hedge-fund market. The decision by the Cali

  5. Short Selling - Notorious U.S. short-seller targets Alibaba[more]

    From Wantchinatimes.com: A notorious American short-seller appears to have "targeted" Chinese internet giant Alibaba on the eve of its historic public listing on the New York Stock Exchange, reports Chinese web portal Hexun. Alibaba's highly-anticipated listing on Friday could potentially be the big