Sun, Dec 17, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: Fitch's GDP forecast for developed economies and BRICs

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

amb
An Opalesque column for global macro investors.

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Financial markets have been on the road to recovery, but real economy has not, says Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency, in its latest Global Economic Outlook Special Report. In the fourth quarter of 2012 (Q412), the Eurozone and the U.S. had the weakest quarterly GDP growth since 2009. Meanwhile, spreads on risky assets tightened and some stock markets peaked.

Fitch forecasts economic growth of 1% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014 for major advanced economies, 4.7% and 5% for emerging markets, and 2.2% and 2.8% globally.

In the U.S., real GDP grew by 0.1% (annualised) in Q412, disappointing higher expectations. This was a deceleration from Q312 (3.1%), and largely due to a sharp downturn in federal and especially defence spending and private inventories, according to Fitch. However, consumer spending, residential corporate investment, and the labour market remained reasonably healthy in Q412. Fitch revised down its 2013 forecast because of Q412 and also because of "additional headwinds from the $85bn (0.5% of GDP) automatic spending cuts that come into effect on 1 March (the sequester)." The GDP forecast for the U.S. is 1.9% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014. Fitch expects consumer spending to remain resilient, unemployment to remain above 6.5%, and the Fed to maintain its monetary stance (asset purchases and low rates) until the end of 2014.

In Japan, ......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Mediobanca acquires majority stakes in Swiss hedge fund[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Listed diversified banking group Mediobanca SpA said it has acquired a majority stake in Geneva-based hedge fund firm RAM Active Investments SA (RAM AI), an active and alternative asset manager offering a range of act

  2. Launches - Ex-BlueCrest team to open over $200m hedge fund, Greg Coffey, a hedge fund star who retired at 41, is eyeing a comeback, Brevan Howard plans Greek funds as bond rally signals revival[more]

    Ex-BlueCrest team to open over $200m hedge fund From Bloomberg.com: A team of traders who left BlueCrest Capital Management earlier this year raised more than $200 million for their own hedge fund focused on Asian stocks, according to a person familiar with the matter. Ovata Capital Manag

  3. North America - Miami could attract hedge funds if SALT deductions axed[more]

    From Law360.com: For years, inertia has been Nitin Motwani's greatest foe in his attempts to lure hedge fund owners in the northeast to Miami, which he has pitched as a tropical low-tax paradise. But with the Republican tax bill proposing to eliminate deductions for state and local taxes, he's sensi

  4. Northleaf Capital Partners closes debut private credit fund on $670M[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Northleaf Capital Partners has closed its debut private credit fund - Northleaf Private Credit I - on $670 million. The vehicle will invest in private credit transactions in Europe and North America, with a primary focus on lending to private equity-backed compa

  5. ...And Finally - The ongoing gun saga in the U.S.[more]

    From Newsoftheweird.com: As elder members of the First United Methodist Church in Tellico Plains, Tennessee, gathered on Nov. 16 to discuss the recent church shooting in Sutherland Springs, Texas, one of those present asked if anyone had brought a gun to church. One man spoke up and said he c